Saturday, December 3, 2011

2012 Republican Presidential Nomination (3 December 2011 update)

A new update from Jason on the Republican Presidential Nomination:

The You-Lost-Your-Chance Candidates:

- CAIN just dropped out today amid sexual harassment and extra-marital affair allegations. His supporters have seemed to be flocking behind Newt Gingrich. Lesson to be learned: If you are married, don't even have "friendships" that your spouse isn't aware of.

- PERRY hasn't been able to regain ground since his poor debate performances. He seems to have brain lapses quite frequently which make him appear less competent to the public.

The Wildcards:

- SANTORUM: Still my personal favorite. One of my biggest pet peeves with elections is that people think that in order for their vote to count, they need to vote for one of the top two candidates. The problem is that everyone is doing that. I think that both Santorum and Bachman could have support to be the top candidate if people weren't placing their support behind other candidates thinking that there's no way Santorum or Bachman could win.

- BACHMAN: I like her almost as much as Santorum. Currently, she's got a little more support than he does, but hasn't gotten back up to the level she was at before Perry entered the race.

- PAUL: The Libertarian. Ron Paul could really shake things up. We really don't know how much support he really has. He gets a lot of support from younger Republicans (the internet generation). So he wins most online polls, but does poorly in phone surveys (since a lot of younger people these days don't have landline phones). If Santorum and Bachman drop out, I think Paul or Romney will be my choice.

The new "Top Two" Candidates:

- GINGRICH: It seems that the anybody-but-Romney crowd is now supporting their third candidate (after losing faith in first Perry and then Cain). Gingrich has done very well in the debates. I like his attitude of focusing on substance rather than spending time attacking the other candidates.

- ROMNEY: If it comes down to Romney and Gingrich, I'd go Romney all the way. Gingrich just doesn't have a good track record for personal values that I think a President needs to have. The problem with both Romney and Gingrich is that they are too afraid to lose the moderate vote, so they are wary of backing the small-government ideas promoted by the Wildcard candidates. They both also have some flip-flopping in their political history.

2012 Republican Presidential Nomination (11 October 2011 update)

*Note: I wrote this back in October. An update should be posted shortly.

These are some of the views I've been formulating as I learn more about the candadites. Nothings set in stone.

- Santorum: Right now, Santorum is my favorite. He has been constant in his values. Sadly, because of his dedication to promote family values, LGBT activists have launched major attacks against him over the years and the media doesn't like him much.

- Perry: The Republicans who don't like Romney have been desperate to try to put someone else as a frontrunner. They thought Perry was their man, but since his surge, he hasn't done well. To me, he seems too much like a puppet for the party.

- Cain: Perry's supporters have now flocked to Cain. Having never held office before in some ways is a plus. However, his lack of experience makes me doubt that he will get his plan pushed through. 9-9-9 might be a good transition, but I'm worried (like Santorum) that introducing the federal sales tax without completely eliminating income tax first could open the door for potentially adding a new tax instead of replacing one.

- Gingrich: I don't know what Gingrich is up to. He hasn't really done any campaining. He just joins the debates talking about how any one of the Republican candidates is better than Obama. He doesn't do any attacking. I like how in a previous debate he stated his disappointment in how the media is trying to get the candidates to attack each other. I agree that we need a president who accepts responsability, not one who knows how to blame others.

- Hunstman: For some reason Hunstman bothers me. Maybe people familiar with his work as governor of Utah could let me know their opinions of him.

- Paul: I like Paul's dedication to state's rights and limited government. However, because he is so libertarian, it seems like a lot of his support comes from anarchists and people who generally don't like to have rules. If he gets up to the top two, I'll start thinking more seriously about him.

- Bachmann: I like the principles that Bachmann is running on. However, it seems like everything good she has to offer I can already find in Santorum.

- Romney: Overall, I think that currently Romney is the party's best chance at retaking the White House (the polls say this too). He has dedicated, detailed plans for national security, job creation, and economic security - plans far better than the current administration's policies. They are more moderate than I would propose, but that makes him more attractive to the middle.