Saturday, December 3, 2011

2012 Republican Presidential Nomination (3 December 2011 update)

A new update from Jason on the Republican Presidential Nomination:

The You-Lost-Your-Chance Candidates:

- CAIN just dropped out today amid sexual harassment and extra-marital affair allegations. His supporters have seemed to be flocking behind Newt Gingrich. Lesson to be learned: If you are married, don't even have "friendships" that your spouse isn't aware of.

- PERRY hasn't been able to regain ground since his poor debate performances. He seems to have brain lapses quite frequently which make him appear less competent to the public.

The Wildcards:

- SANTORUM: Still my personal favorite. One of my biggest pet peeves with elections is that people think that in order for their vote to count, they need to vote for one of the top two candidates. The problem is that everyone is doing that. I think that both Santorum and Bachman could have support to be the top candidate if people weren't placing their support behind other candidates thinking that there's no way Santorum or Bachman could win.

- BACHMAN: I like her almost as much as Santorum. Currently, she's got a little more support than he does, but hasn't gotten back up to the level she was at before Perry entered the race.

- PAUL: The Libertarian. Ron Paul could really shake things up. We really don't know how much support he really has. He gets a lot of support from younger Republicans (the internet generation). So he wins most online polls, but does poorly in phone surveys (since a lot of younger people these days don't have landline phones). If Santorum and Bachman drop out, I think Paul or Romney will be my choice.

The new "Top Two" Candidates:

- GINGRICH: It seems that the anybody-but-Romney crowd is now supporting their third candidate (after losing faith in first Perry and then Cain). Gingrich has done very well in the debates. I like his attitude of focusing on substance rather than spending time attacking the other candidates.

- ROMNEY: If it comes down to Romney and Gingrich, I'd go Romney all the way. Gingrich just doesn't have a good track record for personal values that I think a President needs to have. The problem with both Romney and Gingrich is that they are too afraid to lose the moderate vote, so they are wary of backing the small-government ideas promoted by the Wildcard candidates. They both also have some flip-flopping in their political history.

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